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Christmas 2011 is now a warm memory. For those of us – like me! – who are sick and tired of all the holiday brouhaha by January 1^st, this is a good thing. One of the great things about the early days of the New Year is that we get a better sense for how the retail industry performed in the all-important month of December. Who came out ahead in the big Christmas shopping bonanza, and who slunk back to the North Pole with mediocre gains… or even losses? One thing that is unsurprising is the fact that December 2011 was, overall, a fairly unimpressive month for retail sales. Considering the fact that all indicators pointed to a serious sales slowdown in the weeks following Black Friday and consumers not going as hogwild on shopping this year as initially hopes, it’s not exactly a marvel that sales weren’t great. Still, that doesn’t mean that investors should demand discount valuations from all retail stocks in the same way that they insist on bargains at the mall.

Although September and October 2011 showed us a misleading “pop” in the retail sector (with gains of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively), Christmas sales just didn’t measure up. Despite the fact that the malls looked pretty darn busy from where I was parked, overall retail sales edged up only a mere 0.1% over November levels (or 0.2%, leaving out sales of automobiles), the slowest rate reported since May, as economists and analysts were quick to point out. That compares to economists’ forecasts of a 0.3% advance. These unimpressive results are reflective of consumers’ own uncertainties and cloudy outlook at present. While it’s true that the unemployment rate is finally budging downwards and that consumer confidence is measured to be rising, experts predict that it will take a lot more job creation and growth in income for those consumers to feel comfortable opening their wallets and spending freely, rather than prowling the stores in quest of seventy-five percent discounts on cashmere sweaters and electronics.

But let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Although the December data may be a worrying sign for those monitoring macro trends in the expectation that they will drive financial markets, it would be silly and short-sighted for investors to view all retail stocks through the same prism. Yes, some retailers’ results for December were just plain disappointing. One example of that was Best Buy (BBY -1.90%). CEO Brian Dunn tried to explain the fact that visits to the electronic retailer’s stores climbed in the fourth quarter, and yet the chain still couldn’t seem to drive up profits in a corresponding way. The company couldn’t manage to turn visits into sales – or profitable sales, anyway. It isn’t really surprising that the stock trades at a mere 8.15 times trailing 12-month earnings, but the phrase “value trap” springs to mind, especially since sales of electronic products plummeted by a dismal 3.9% in December.

A surprising winner in the December retail race was Macy’s (M -1.77%). All the writing was on the wall for the department store to have a lousy Christmas season: department stores as a category saw their sales slump 0.8 percent in December. Target (TGT +0.02%) and J.C. Penney (JCP -1.52%) were among the numerous losers in this corner of the retail market, posting sales results that didn’t match their own targets. After cutting prices to move merchandise, some of these firms have been slashing their profit forecasts. Keeping stores open from dawn until midnight and offering big bargains just wasn’t enough to get people excited about shopping in the big boxes. Out of nowhere came Macy’s, which is now anticipating growth in same-store sales of 5.3% to 5.5% for the fourth quarter, a full percentage point above an earlier forecast and well above the 3 percent gain the retailer predicted at the beginning of the year. Given that luxury retailers did better than most other categories of retailers (since the much-vaunted one percent is still shopping, it seems) the upscale Bloomingdale’s division of Macy’s contributed to those gains. But management is sharing the wealth: It doubled its quarterly divided to 10 cents a share last July and just announced plans to do it again, to 20 cents a share to shareholders of record March 15.

But if Macy’s proved that not all department stores were created equal, then Tiffany & Co. (TIF -1.15%) proved that not all luxury brands were moneymakers this holiday. The company reported poor same-store sales, forcing it to trim its own profit forecasts. Again, assumptions simply can’t be trusted when it comes to holiday retail!

The moral of this story is that it is foolish in the utmost to make any sweeping general assumptions when it comes to the retailing industry, and especially in the month of December. You can’t use one firm to judge another, even if it seems to make sense to lump them together. Take, for example, the comparisons of yuppie clothier The Gap and colorful, funky footwear company Crocs. One firm aimed at middle-class consumers of clothing and footwear -The Gap (GPS +0.66%)- may be battling to convince customers to buy, even as another -Crocs (CROX -0.49%)- predicts that sales of its clunky clog-like footwear in a rainbow of colors have been so robust that its revenue is set to top $1 billion for the first time in its history. (Shoe retailers like DSW are doing well, too; DSW recently boosted earnings guidance.) Lesson? Middle-class shoppers were loving shoes and not clothes this year. Who would have guessed?

There is just no making foolproof predictions about retail performance, because the human factor has proven time and time again that it will provide a spoiler every single time. It might be easier to treat the retailers as if they responded in unison to the same economic trends, but that simply isn’t the case. You are likely to get foiled, and doing so means running a twofold risk: losing money as some retailers lag their peers, and losing the opportunity of outperforming the broader market as some companies do an exceptional job and are rewarded for it… even in a lackluster economic environment. It’s best to just sit back and watch the numbers roll by.